The Libertarians

Good Times in Boston

The Boston sports scene is in one of those cyclical upswings. The Red Sox won the World Series. The Patriots are undefeated. And now, most suprisingly, the Celtics are back, thanks to the Kevin Garnett deal. It hasn’t been this good since 1986, when the Red Sox and Patriots made appearances in their respective championship games (both losing) and the Celtics cruised to their sixteenth NBA banner.

The Celtics roster, however, is pretty top heavy. They have three All-Stars in Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. After that, the drop off in quality is steep. Back in ‘86 not only did the Celtics have the Big Three -Larry Bird, Kevin McHale and Robert Parrish (all now in the Hall of Fame)- but they had former All-Stars Bill Walton at center (1977, ‘78 and named one of the 50 best players in NBA history), Dennis Johnson (1979-82, ‘85), Danny Ainge (’88) and Scott Wedman (76′). Not a bad supporting crew.

That said, the Wages of Wins Journal notes nineteenth century Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto’s idea that “80 percent of the income in Italy came from 20 percent of the population. This observation led to a general rule of thumb: 80 percent of outcomes come from 20 percent of the people. So for businesses, 80 percent of sales come from 20 percent of clients, or 80 percent of your problems come from 20 percent of your workers, etc…”

Well, assuming the Celtics carry 15 players, the new “Big Three” represent 20 percent of the team. Using its calculation for wins produced per 48 minutes played, Wages of Wins estimates that this 20 percent could translate into 50 or so wins for the year. While Pareto’s concept may be too simplistic, it does remind one that most wins in the NBA come from the efforts of a few super-talented players -coaches’ rants about T-E-A-M aside. If your team is composed of 20 percent All-Stars you have a very good chance of winning a title. This isn’t to obviate the roles other players have on a successful team, just to make clear that without that 20 percent, you are never going anywhere.